Abstract
This paper is an analysis about the relations between the cyclical fluctuation of lumber price and the business cycle. The price index number of lumber price in Japan (1952 average eq. 100) from 1953 to 1979 is used as the original data.
As a result of the analysis, the followings are clarified:
(1) The cyclical fluctuation of lumber price has relation to the reference cycle (a kind of Kitchin cycle).
1. If we make the cyclical fluctuation of lumber price by omitting the secular trend and the seasonal variation from the original data, the peak of the cyclical fluctuation is earlier than that of the reference cycle, and the trough is later.
2. If we regard the change of lumber price over the year as the cyclical fluctuation of lumber price, the peak of the cyclical fluctuation is earlier than that of the reference cycle, and the trough is almost simultaneous.
3. The period of the cyclical fluctuation of lumber price has much the same length as that of the reference cycle. Considering 1 and 2, the rising period of the cyclical fluctuation of lumber price is shorter than that of the reference cycle.
(2) The peak and the trough of the change of lumber price over the year are almost simultaneous with those of cumulated Diffusion Index (leading indicators). Especially for the last ten years, the level of both index can be almost equal by operating adequately. Diffusion Index is useful for the forecast of the short-run fluctuation of lumber price.
(3) The fluctuation of lumber price after the World War II has a separation point around 1965. On lumber price there is a possibility that a long-run cycle exists, which is opposite to Kondratiev long wave.
