A New Method for Gentan Probability Estimation

Abstract

Gentan probability is defined as the distribution of survival time for a forest stand until being harvested after a plantation. The original method to estimate Gentan probability is based on derivation of the gamma distribution from an average and variance of harvest timing. Given that a forest stand is not harvested up to a certain age, a new method is proposed to estimate Gentan probability by means of the Laplace transformation of the distribution of survival time. The method is to estimate the distribution of survival time, i.e., Gentan probability, through an average, variance and skewness of the tree life span from an existent harvest statistical data.