Possibility and Limitation of a Partial Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis on Timber Trade

Abstract

FAO developed a forest product trade model by applying GFPM (Global Forest Product Model) to trading fifteen products among sixteen nations in Asia and other seven nations over the time horizon till 2020. At this moment, there remain some problems on this kind of the modeling approach to policy analysis from the viewpoint of comparative dynamics. This paper is to clarify possibility and limitation of such a model for policy analysis on timber trade by reviewing the report from USTR on the tariff liberalization of forest products with a use of GFPM and CGTM (CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model).