Online ISSN : 2188-5729
ISSN-L : 2188-5729
Original Article
A Method for Applying the Modified Gentan Probability Theory to Timber Supply-Demand Model
Takuya Hiroshima
Author information

2003 Volume 2 Pages 145-158


In this research Timber Supply-Demand Model, which developed for estimation of domestic timber supply and demand under the particular scenarios, is taken up to apply the modified Gentan probability theory to reflect the changes of economic factors such as timber price. As a result, to avoid the complexity of manageable forest problem it is required to adopt the function g(t) satisfying g(0) = 0 and g(t)→∞ when t→∞. The timber price model with monotonously increasing linear trends based on the time series model is proposed as proper g(t) and the parameters of g(t) are estimated by the ordinary least squares method, the maximum likelihood method and so on.

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