FORMATH
Online ISSN : 2188-5729
ISSN-L : 2188-5729
Scientific Category
Role of Harvested Wood Products in Meeting Long-term Climate Targets for China
Nicklas Forsell Minpeng ChenJinfeng ChangHao ZhaoFulvio di Fulvio
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JOURNAL OPEN ACCESS

2024 Volume 23 Article ID: 23.003

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Abstract

The Chinese government has set ambitious climate reduction targets: the country has pledged to reach their carbon dioxide (CO2) emission target before 2030 and achieve climate neutrality before 2060. To achieve this ambition, harvested wood products (HWP) play an essential role in offsetting the residual emission. However, knowledge gap exists in terms of the role of HWP in achieving pledged ambitions expressed in Nationally Determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). This study projects the size of the Chinese HWP carbon pool until 2060 based on the 2019 Refinement of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories (PA2019) and the GLOBIOM-China land use model. While the net carbon sequestration of the HWP carbon pool has increased in China over the last two decades, our assessment shows that there is a risk that the net sink of HWP carbon may have peaked as of 2020 and will saturate and decrease with time. As of 2020, the annual net GHG sink for the HWP carbon pool was estimated at -173.45 MtCO2, and under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, this rate would be reduced to -131.10 MtCO2 by 2060. A high bio-energy demand scenario, consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5◦C, leads to a greater reduction in the HWP sink, which by 2060 will amount to only -33.33 MtCO2. However, the net carbon sequestration rate of HWP could be enhanced to -136.54 MtCO2 if efforts are made to enhance the domestic consumption of semi-finished wood products. As a result, although the HWP is currently providing China with significant reductions in its economic emissions on a national level, its development over time should be fully integrated into national strategies directed at mitigating climate change and meeting international obligations.

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