The Modeling and Application for Forest Resource Prediction by Using System Dynamics

-The Stand Density Control Diagram,Stand-aggregate, and Forest Management-

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a model that makes a prediction about operational effects of an assumed management plan based on a real forest. In this study, forest was considered to be stand-aggregate. This prediction model of forest stand resources was constructed by using the system dynamics method; which enables us to analyze flows and stocks. In this prediction model, the forest-stock element was arranged according to ageclasses in order to express age-succession in the forest by applying the idea of stand density control diagram. Consequently, we could express management plans as the succession of stand density. The transitions of forest stand resources were estimated about private sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) forest of Kuma Town, Ehime Prefecture in terms of 100-year-cutting-period.