2007 Volume 6 Pages 115-128
In this study, we first estimate price elasticity of lumber supply and demand for eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), as well as China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticity for these regions, we secondly analyze the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our analysis show that the price elasticity of lumber demand and supply of all products is small in the Kyushu and Chugoku regions, where the domestic timber and the US processed lumber is actively produced, while the price elasticity of lumber demand is large in the Kanto region as the major lumber consumption area. With the derived elasticity for JAFSEM, our simulation results show that Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, which would be met by Korea and China supplies.
