抄録
This study shows two scenarios with rich renewable energy supply in 2050 for Japan. ‘Bridge scenario’ shows 80% decrease of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 level. ‘100% renewable energy scenario’ shows energy supply fully with renewables to all of the end-use energy demand. The future energy demand is estimated by activity level with decreasing population, change of industrial structure and efficiency improvement. The results of energy demand for two scenarios in 2050 show 53-61% of 2010 level. We surveyed the potentials and prospects of domestic renewable energy sources such as hydropower, photovoltaic (PV), wind, geothermal, biomass and solar heat. Based on the survey, we synthesized two scenarios by allocating renewable resources to energy end use. We performed dynamic hourly simulations of renewable electricity supply to the electricity demand using weather data. The excess electricity caused by variable generation is used to supply energy to EV, FCV and thermal energy demand.
