Abstract
It is said that M8 class earthquake like the 1944 Tonankai earthquake may occur in the seismogenic zone off the Kii peninsula with considerably high probability in the near future. Such a large earthquake with shallow focal depth is prone to generate long-period ground motions which strongly excite liquid sloshing of oil storage tanks, as in the 1964 Niigata earthquake and the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake.
Here, we tried to predict the long-period ground motions from the hypothetical Tonankai earthquake at Nagoya, where tanks will be strongly affected, based on the empirical and theoretical methods. As a result, we found that the predicted acceleration spectra by both methods agree with each other, and that the predicted spectra show the high risk of overflow of oil from tanks with about 3 sec of natural period of sloshing.
