Assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan: Philosophy and achievements of the SOUSEI program

抄録

We review the philosophy and achievements of the research activity on assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan under Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI). The concept of this research project consists of assessing worst-class meteorological hazards and evaluating probabilistic information on the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. Worst-scenario analyses for historical extreme typhoons and probabilistic analyses on Baiu, warm-season rainfalls, and strong winds with the use of high-performance climate model outputs are described. Collaboration among the fields in meteorology, hydrology, coastal engineering, and forest science plays a key role in advancing the impact assessment of meteorological hazards and risks. Based on the present research activity, possible future directions are given.