Impacts of long lead-time flood forecasting on disaster response and society: insights from Nagano, Japan

抄録

This study investigated the potential impacts of Long Lead-time Flood Forecasting Systems (LFS) on disaster response and societal changes through focus groups involving administrative stakeholders and researchers in Nagano, Japan. LFS has been shown to enhance proactive disaster responses, such as improved evacuation support and shelter environments in flood-prone areas, while fostering long-term societal transformations, including increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, the study also identified potential negative impacts, such as overreliance on forecasts, psychological biases, and reduced infrastructure investments, underscoring the need for responsible LFS implementation.