Regression Analysis of Electric Power Price in California Power Exchange

Abstract

The liberalization of the electric power industries was executed from April 1998 in California State. Though this liberalization is suspended because of the extremely high bids and the outages, the information of the power price in the power exchange is very variable to investigate its structure and determination factor.
From the accessible web site, we obtained the every hour data of the zone prices and the whole demand of California from April 1998 to September 2001, under the deregulation of the electric power industry. We are analyzing the prices by the regression analysis. In this paper, we compose simple regression equations successfully to classify the price data into four time zones. Next, we analyze the prices from June to September 2000 when the price cap of the power price is changed twice. The Chow test shows that the structural changes in the power price are occurred when the price cap is changed. Thus we observe the determining factor of the electric power price by the regression analysis.