Abstract
The purpose of this study is to propose a method to evaluate approximately a geographical smoothing effect on the output fluctuation of photovoltaic generation systems installed densely in a bounded area. This paper comprises two parts. The first part shows the result of analysis about output fluctuation, which is observed during four months in summer at ten groups of photovoltaic generation systems, located in AIST Tsukuba Central and totaling 844kW, and presents findings about a geographical smoothing effect on output fluctuation in the light of statistical characteristics such as the standard deviation of output variation and correlation factors between the output variations of different systems. The second part contains a mathematical modeling of a geographical smoothing effect in a bounded area based on the findings presented in the previous part and proposes a set of formulas to evaluate approximately a geographical smoothing effect on the output fluctuation of photovoltaic generation systems installed densely in a bounded area only using geometrical information about the area.
