Abstract
The fluctuation of the total power output of clustered PV systems would be smaller than that of single PV system because of the time difference in the power output fluctuation among PV systems at different locations. This effect, so called smoothing-effect, must be taken into account properly when the impact of clustered PV systems on electric power system is assessed. If the average power output of clustered PV systems can be estimated from the power output of single PV system, it is very useful and helpful for the impact assessment. In this study, we propose a simple method to estimate the total power output fluctuation of clustered PV systems. In the proposed method, a smoothing effect is assumed to be caused as a result of two factors, i.e. time difference of overhead clouds passing among PV systems and the random change in the size and/or shape of clouds. The first one is formulated as a low-pass filter, assuming that output fluctuation is transmitted to the same direction as the wind direction at the constant speed. The second one is taken into account by using a Fourier transform surrogate data. The parameters in the proposed method were selected, so that the estimated fluctuation can be similar with that of ensemble average fluctuation of data observed at 5 points used as a training data set. Then, by using the selected parameters, the fluctuation property was estimated for other data set. The results show that the proposed method is useful for estimating the total power output fluctuation of clustered PV systems.
