IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Online ISSN : 1348-8147
Print ISSN : 0385-4213
ISSN-L : 0385-4213
Paper
Prediction Interval Estimation of Demand Curve in Electric Power Distribution System
Tomohide YamazakiShinji WakaoHirokazu ItoTsuneyo Sano
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2016 Volume 136 Issue 12 Pages 848-857

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Abstract

In a distribution line, power system control and power equipment investment are planned based on a measured power system current. However, recently the mass introduction of PV make it difficult for us to precisely measure the demand curve that is a current consumed by electrical equipment because the reversal power flow from PV systems is superposed. Therefore, the prediction of demand curves of distribution line is indispensable for power system management. Additionally, it is also necessary to estimate the reliability of the predicted values as well as predicted current itself. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of the prediction interval that is the index of reliability based on the past demand curve database. The feature of the proposed method based on Just-In-Time (JIT) modeling make it possible for us to accurately estimate the prediction interval by the normalized database of demand curve. In this paper, some numerical examples are presented, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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© 2016 by the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan
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