Applicability Evaluation of a PV Power Output Estimation Method by using Covariance between Solar Radiation Intensity and Power Flow

Abstract

There is a growing need to use photovoltaic (PV) technology to mitigate global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels while also enhancing energy security. However, the high network penetration of PVs has various negative effects on electrical power systems. In recent years, automated operating systems have been introduced into substations to enable rapid and automatic restoration after a power outage. However, PVs shut down in the case of a power outage and are not automatically restored. Therefore, it is necessary to compensate the electric power output of the PVs by using an extra power supply at the time of power recovery. For this compensation process, it is necessary to monitor the unmeasurable power outputs of the PVs, including those belonging to other organizations and individuals, to ensure that the automated operating system is used properly. Based on these aspects, in our previous work, a novel method was proposed to estimate the PV power output of an electrical power system using the measured power flow and solar radiation intensity. In this paper, we confirmed that the accuracy of the proposed method is sufficiently high using year-round data observed from The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., and characterized the relationship between the PV implementation rate and accuracy of the proposed method.