Assessment of the Wide-Area Impact of PV Output Forecast Error due to Snowfall on Electricity Supply and Demand using a Time-Series PV/WF Variability Model

Abstract

The amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems can traditionally be calculated from solar radiation, but predictions can be significantly off due to snow accumulation on PV panels. Additionally, the output of wind farms (WF) varies with meteorological conditions, making predictions challenging. We have previously assumed the year 2040 and, focusing on days where PV output predictions were inaccurate, provided deterministic scenarios. By solving the Unit Commitment (UC) problem, we evaluated the impact of PV output prediction errors due to snow accumulation on power supply operation. In this study, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations considering the uncertainty of PV output and WF output for both 2021 and 2040. We analyzed the impact of PV output prediction errors due to snow accumulation on power supply operation. The simulation results revealed that improving the accuracy of PV output predictions is effective in reducing the risk of supply disruptions.