A Model for the Evaluation of the Energy and Environmental Security in Japan

Abstract

Nowadays, conventional energy systems face various kinds of problem, e. g. environmental issues, uncertainties, resource restrictions, etc. The purpose of this study is to develop an energy/economy model to evaluate the security of energy systems in Japan from the macro-social points of view. The term “Environmental Security” conceives the new idea to expand the “Environmental Protection” for positive response to the environmental issues. The effect of cogeneration systems is also taken into account.
This model is a macro-econometric model which involves five primary energy sources, seven secondary energy categories and three final demand sectors. Various scenarios in the future are studied by the cross impact method (X-I method) to evaluate the security through simulations.
In this frameworks, the model calculates the total volume of carbon dioxide emission, including the case of charging carbon emission tax, demand for each primary energy sources, the loss of consumers' surplus, etc. in the case of “oil crisis” (sudden and serious oil supply reduction) and of change in energy supply structure. The contirubion of cogeneration systems are also studied.
The results of the study show the followings: (1) carbon emission tax will stabilize the carbon emission level of 1990, if initial value is set at 4, 000 ¥/C-t in 1993 and then is increased by 1, 000¥/C-t every year, (2) the loss of GDP by the carbon emission tax is calculated ¥450, 000_??_500, 000 per ton of carbon reduced, (3) the loss of consumer's surplus in the case of “oil crisis” is strongly influenced by supply price elasticity and yet it is recovered in a short period of time in the Japanese energy systems.