Abstract
A model construction for predicting the inflow rate to a dam was developed taking into accuracy of rainfall prediction. Based on artificial rainfall prediction data which include quasi prediction errors, an order of the model for the inflow rate into the dam was determined so as to minimize the inflow rate errors. We evaluated the proposed method for model structure determination by use of actual data of the inflow rate of Kawago dam in Kyushu electric power company and the rainfall at the Kawago area. The model structure determined by use of the proposed method showed a reduced order comparing with a model ignoring the prediction error of rainfall. The constructed model gave a satisfactory prediction accuracy of inflow rate into the dam. The proposed method for model construction proved to be effective in determining the order of the model which included errors of input data.
