Abstract
R&D planning is important for promoting R&D effectively and efficiently. But it is examined and decided mainly by experts' judgements based on their intuition and experience. The authors consider that systems analysis should be introduced to make R&D planning more rational and persuasive and to make R&D more effective and efficient.
This paper has two purposes. One is to propose a method for analyzing cost-effectiveness of R&D, which is based on cost-efficiencies derived from technological progress models with variable of cumulative R&D expenditure. And the other is to validate plan of R&D on solar cells in the (New-) Sunshine Program of Japan by using the proposed method with demonstrating its effectiveness.
Based on the cost-effectiveness analysis, R&D goals or allocation of R&D expenditure for multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) solar cells might not be appropriate during FYs 1997-2000. And during FYs 1989-1996, R&D on me-Si solar cells might have been planned without well forecasting increase of the mc-Si solar cell production by subsidization programs after that.
This analysis demonstrates that the cost-effectiveness analysis of R&D by using the proposed method is effective and helpful in planning R&D. The authors expect that this method will be used widely for decision making in R&D planning for energy technologies.
