Mapping Land Use Shifts in Nepal’s Protected Regions: Insights for Biodiversity and Resource Management

Abstract

This study investigated the temporal dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes across 13 protected areas (PAs) (12 National Parks and 1 Wildlife Reserve) and their associated buffer zones from 1990 to 2021. Data from the National Land Cover Monitoring System (NLCMS) for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 were acquired, while random forest modeling using Landsat 7 images at the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform was utilized for the year 2021. The data were analyzed using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) within the TerraSet IDRISI software. Total forest cover for the core areas of the 13 PAs exhibited resilience, declining from 4,731.89 km² (1990) to 4,554.87 km² (2000) before recovering to 5,021.95 km² (2021), marking a net gain of 290.06 km². Total shrubland area fluctuated, peaking at 298.24 km² (2010) but declining to 252.47 km² (2021). Total grassland area experienced dramatic shifts, plummeting to 1,723.04 km² (2010) before rebounding to 3,088.57 km² (2021). Total agricultural land area peaked at 207.62 km² (2010) but sharply contracted to 82.33 km² (2021). Total barren land area expanded by 65% (1990–2000) but stabilized at 2,203.70 km² (2021). Total built-up areas surged 179-fold (0.19 to 34.08 km²), reflecting anthropogenic encroachment pressures. Total snow/glacier cover recovered from a low of 2,276.57 km² (2000) to 2,997.39 km² (2021). Buffer zones exhibited contrasting trends: total agricultural land area expanded steadily (1,322.24 to 1,407.36 km²), total shrubland area doubled (92.75 to 211.90 km²), and total barren land area plummeted 90% (488.07 to 46.40 km²). Total built-up areas grew tenfold (3.87 to 32.54 km²), highlighting urbanization pressures. Total grassland area rebounded from x (1990) to 941.19 km² (2021). Total snow/glacier coverage was halved post-2010 (419.83 to 244.61 km²). In summary, the core areas demonstrated biodiversity recovery, demonstrated by forest regeneration and reduced agriculture, while buffer zones faced intensified land use from agricultural and urbanization uses and climate impacts. These findings highlight the delicate balance between conservation and development pressures in Nepal’s protected areas. They offer valuable insights for planning and policy, stressing the need for targeted interventions to address human impacts while preserving ecological connectivity. Given Nepal’s diverse landscapes, from tropical lowlands to Himalayan ranges, these insights can guide sustainable management both locally and globally.