Quantitative Risk Simulation of Aquifer CO₂ Disposal Economics for Alberta

抄録

Alberta's economic engine is fueled mainly by the fossil fuels industry. Energy generation from coal and the production and burning of oil and natural gas are the main sources of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Alberta, Canada. Over the next decade, the multi-billion dollar expansion of oil sands production, population growth and the demand for energy will present a major challenge to Alberta, amidst the current world initiatives on global warming. In this study, the authors present detailed design, economic and risk models and anal ysis of CO₂ disposal under aquifers and develop appropriate strategies for sound economic policies in dealing with CO₂ emissions in Alberta. The design and construction of the aquifer disposal system is based on CO₂ capture from flue gas using the KS technology, CO₂ liquefaction, transportation and injection. Projected CO₂ emission levels are modeled using econometric theory based on the derived energy demand and prices, population and industrial growth and technological changes for the period between 1999 and 2012. Detailed economic models of the aquifer disposal system are used to predict the long-term minimized cost curves that ensure atmospheric balance under given projected CO₂ levels. Quantitative risk analysis using variance simulation and the Latin Hypercube techniques are used to predict the long-term risks associated with this disposal option. The results show that the expected capital investments over the 14-year period is 3.65 billion and the annual operating cost is 112million. The energy cost is expected to increase by 24% from 0.043 to 0.053/kWh. The expected unit cost associated with the aquifer CO₂ disposal is about 30/ton of CO₂ in the first four years of operation. This unit cost gradually decreases as a result of economies of scale from 36/ton in year one to about $18/ton in year four. Risk simulation also shows that the unit disposal and energy cost will be stable in this period (about 2% COV) as a result of the stable economies of Alberta and Canada.