Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021

Abstract

We analyze how six ASEAN Member States (AMS) - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam - are affected by economic shocks represented by global, domestic, and uncertainty shocks. We collect macroeconomic indicators for 1990-2021 and calculate macroeconomic shocks based on the prediction errors of real GDP growth rates. We reveal that these macroeconomic shocks of AMS are synchronized particularly with the world for the most part of the sample period. Then, our main finding obtained from the regression analysis is that these countries’ economic shocks are associated with global shocks, country-specific domestic shocks, and in some countries, uncertainty. We also review the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on AMS based on the above-mentioned regression analysis.