Prediction on Optimum Population Capacity Determined by Facility Density

A case of residence attraction areas in Kumamoto

Abstract

In the context of population decline and urban sprawl, based on “The Location Optimization Plan” to promote the sustainable structural transformation of city to compact city, the residential attraction areas in Kumamoto, Japan are taken as the research area. And the prediction model of optimum population capacity is used to measure the balance between people and urban environment by Random Forest regression, so as to grasp the residential development of residence attraction areas with sufficient population capacity. From the whole residence attraction areas, future population development trends will not exceed the region's optimum population capacity, but there are problems in maintaining the population in the urban inducing areas, mainly reflected in the Suizenji-Kuhonji, Kengun and Nagamine regional hubs.