Evaluating the Performance of Development Plans in Iran before and after the 1979 Revolution

Spatial planning approach

Abstract

Iran’s 1979 revolution has not succeeded in fundamentally achieving its development goals. This exploratory article employs content analysis to evaluate the performance of development plans and to examine their evolution, growth rate, and potential improvements. Comparing construction and development plans before and after the revolution is crucial for advancing Iran’s economic, social, and cultural development strategies. The results indicate that these plans have been largely ineffective in meeting the objectives outlined in the constitution and the country’s vision document. Specifically, the average targets of construction plans from 1948 to 1977 and economic, social, and cultural development plans from 1988 to 2015 were estimated at 26.74% and 7.6%, respectively, while their average actual performance was only 12.10% and 3.1%. The primary reasons for this low performance include systemic issues such as the political system and election laws, the economy’s heavy dependence on oil revenues, inappropriate market interventions, mismatches between technical capacity and the country’s data and statistics, among other factors. Overall, there has been little to no progress or development in planning accuracy and forecasting.