Model for Land Use Control in Agricultural Areas to Support Food Self-Sufficiency by 2045 in Demak Regency

Abstract

Food self-sufficiency is included in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDGs) number two, which is to end hunger. Demak Regency, as the fourth largest rice-producing area in Central Java Province, has experienced a decline in rice field area of 2,759.67 hectares during 2010-2024 (197.12 hectares per year) due to climate change, land use change, flooding, and tidal flooding. The objectives of this study were to (i) identify productive agricultural land in Demak Regency; (ii) analyse rice self-sufficiency and the carrying capacity of agricultural land in each district of Demak Regency; and (iii) formulate a model for managing agricultural land use in Demak Regency. The methods used included spatial analysis of usable productive agricultural land, rice self-sufficiency analysis, rice agricultural land carrying capacity analysis, and a model for controlling agricultural areas in the Demak Regency. Food self-sufficiency in the Demak Regency in 2024-2045 is dominated by a surplus status, but most districts experience a decline in food self-sufficiency rates. The carrying capacity of agricultural land in the Demak Regency decreased from Class II in 2024 to Class III in 2045, indicating that it is not yet capable of achieving food self-sufficiency. The control model that can be applied in the Demak Regency is more comprehensive and integrated, focusing on maintaining land quality, agricultural intensification, agricultural management, and policy. This study contributes to the development of agricultural area control policies, supporting sustainable development goals, to achieve food self-sufficiency over the next 20 years in Demak Regency.