Land Cover Change, Ecosystem Service Implications, and Economy–Land Use Decoupling:

Evidence from the Tiworo Watershed, Indonesia

Abstract

Land cover change plays a critical role in shaping watershed ecological conditions and supporting regional economic activities. This study analyzes land cover dynamics in the Tiworo Watershed, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, for 2014, 2019, and 2024, and examines their relationship with sectoral economic growth. Remote sensing and GIS were used to map and quantify land cover changes, while sectoral Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) data for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries represented economic performance. Economy–land use interactions were assessed using the Tapio decoupling elasticity index. Economy–land use interactions were assessed using the Tapio decoupling elasticity index as a retrospective empirical measure based on observed changes in land cover and sectoral GRDP over the study periods. The results show increasing sectoral GRDP accompanied by relatively limited changes in dominant land cover classes. Absolute decoupling was observed during 2014–2019, relative decoupling during 2019–2024, and overall absolute decoupling for 2014–2024, indicating that economic growth was not proportionally associated with large-scale land conversion. Spatial analysis reveals localized landscape transformations, including mangrove degradation, settlement expansion, and plantation growth, which signal emerging pressures on environmentally sensitive areas. Although ecosystem services are not directly valued, land cover change is interpreted as an indicator of ecological pressure with implications for provisioning ecosystem services. These findings highlight the importance of integrating land-use monitoring and economic indicators to support adaptive watershed management, spatial planning, and sustainable development.