Design of Health State Transition Model Based on the Specific Health Checkup Using Binary Expression

抄録

In Japan, the Specific Health Checkup program, which focuses on metabolic syndrome and aims to prevent lifestyle-related diseases, has been conducted since April 2008. We constructed state transition models of medical examination data from a sample of 3,949 subjects in Japan who received health examinations for two consecutive years. Each of the four inspection factors (body type, blood sugar, lipids, and blood pressure) was expressed as a binary variable using reference values in the Specific Health Checkup, yielding 16 health condition states, (0000) through (1111). First, we calculated state transition probabilities for each of the following three age groups: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, and 60-65 years (256 transitions × 4 age ranges). We then constructed a health state-transition model using two cubic lattices with eight vertices for each of the age groups, and compared these models. In the state transition model for the age group 40-49 years, we found that patients demonstrated a tendency to transition to a healthier state when one of the three factors, other than body type, exceeded the reference range. In addition, transition out of metabolic syndrome required that the three factors other than body type fell within the reference range prior to transition. The health state transition model provides an easy visual demonstration of the health state of the examinee, as well as indicating the direction of the state transition. We believe that our health state transition model provides guidance for efficient and effective health maintenance and improvement for each age group.