時間遅れを考慮した確率SIRモデルの安定性解析

抄録

The purpose of this paper is to propose the stochastic infectious model with time delay and to study the stability of the disease-free steady state. In the realistic spread of the infectious disease, environmental change and individual difference cause some kinds of random fluctuations in the model parameters. Moreover, in the vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, there exists time delay caused by an incubation period in the virus development in the vectors (mosquitoes) on the transmission of disease. Taking these facts into consideration, we propose a stochastic SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered) model with time delay. We analyze stability of the disease-free steady state, and study the influence of time delay and the random noise on the stability by numerical simulations.