Construction of Time-series Modeling of Number of Evacuees Considering Supply Shortage Ratio Transition Based on Infrastructure Environment

Abstract

Japan has experienced several significant earthquakes in the past that have caused extensive damage. Moreover, large earthquakes are predicted to occur in the future. In our previous study, we introduced a time-series model of the number of evacuees. We classified evacuation factors into four categories and derived a dynamic model of the number of evacuees based on the classification. This kind of model is useful for planning evacuation center operations and supporting victims. As an extension of the previous study, we construct a model that considers the shortage rate of supplies based on the recovery rate of lifelines, such as electricity and roads. The model explicitly considers the capacity gap between potential evacuees and actual shelter evacuees, which varies significantly across regions. In addition, the impact of the recovery rate of lifelines and the degree of stockpiling on the shortage rate of supplies was examined through simulations. The proposed model can reflect the detailed damage situation in the affected areas and predict the number of evacuees more realistically.