Considering TMA holding uncertainty into in-flight trajectory optimisation

Abstract

Aircraft crew are aware of the delay they have experienced at departure. However, uncertainties ahead, and in particular holdings at arrival, can have an impact on the final performance of their operations. When optimising a trajectory the expected cost at the arrival gate should be considered. Consequently, taking into account potential congestion and extra delay at the arrival airspace is paramount to avoid taking sub-optimal decisions at the early stages of the flight. This paper presents a framework to optimise trajectories in the execution phase of the flight considering expected delays at arrival. A flight from Athens (LGAV) to London Heathrow (EGLL) is used as illustrative example, systematically exploring a range of departure delays and expected holdings at arrival.