Abstract
Current predictive models for influenza spread are based on an annual person trip data, which are difficult to interpret for a specific urban population. The present study tested whether total floor area according to building use (TFA) may constitute a more reliable alternative to derive a formula predicting the annual infection rate. This model was tested in 23 Tokyo wards based on spatial and epidemic data compiled from 2001 to 2011 using multiple regression analysis with TFA or person trip data as an explanatory variable and infection rate as objective variable. Furthermore, the annual epidemic patterns predicted by this model were validated against the influenza epidemic level maps available for 2004–2011. Results show that TFA is as effective as person trip data for the prediction of infection rate. A relationship was established between TFA and the number of infected individuals. The TFA model identified government offices and educational facilities as a major source of influenza spread to adjacent wards. The wards located away from the city center showed a higher infection rate than downtown Tokyo, despite their lower population density. In conclusion, this study suggests that TFA constitutes a more adequate variable for predictive models of influenza spread within an urban population.
