Super-Spreading is Possible by the Day the First Patients are Discovered in the Community

抄録

I proposed a discrete mathematical SEPIR model for seasonal influenza. In this study, by examining affection by pre-infectious students in real data, I found that the first patients were discovered four days after the consecutive holidays, namely the incubation period passing at our academy. I show that students are likely to super-spread seasonal influenza by the day the first patients are discovered. Then, it is effective to strengthen for seasonal influenza measures within the community especially four days after the consecutive holidays.