Proceedings of the Japan Joint Automatic Control Conference
THE 59TH JAPAN JOINT AUTOMATIC CONTROL CONFERENCE
Session ID : FrA5-3
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Prediction of increase or decrease of the number of influenza patients based on the backstepping method
*T. KuniyaH. Sano
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Abstract

In this study, we consider an age-structured epidemic model. We use the backstepping method in control theory to the model and obtain a threshold condition for the prediction of increase or decrease of infected population per time step. We apply the prediction method to the data of the spread of influenza in Japan from 2006 to 2015. The accuracy is more than 0.8 and higher than the alternative method based on ARIMA.

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© 2016 The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
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