Impact of Management Risk Neglect on Export Sophistication: A Textual Analysis Perspective

抄録

The 2008 global financial crisis significantly impacted Chinese export manufacturing firms. This study examines how management risk neglect affected these firms’ export sophistication during this period. Using panel data from 2006–2010, we treat the crisis as a natural experiment and quantify managerial risk neglect through natural language processing and sentiment analysis. Our intensity double-difference model reveals that firms with higher precrisis managerial risk neglect experienced steeper declines in export sophistication following the crisis. This suggests that risk neglect hinders firms’ strategic adjustments and export upgrading during external shocks. This finding remains robust across various tests. The negative effect was particularly pronounced among large firms, state-owned enterprises, and firms located on the east coast. Furthermore, greater financing constraints were found to mitigate the impact of managerial risk neglect on declining export sophistication. This research contributes to the managerial behavioral finance and export sophistication, offering practical guidance and policy recommendations for Chinese export manufacturing firms seeking to enhance their competitiveness in uncertain trade environments.