Study on Risk Scenarios Based on Disaster Transmission Mechanism for Navigational Disruptions in Tokyo Bay Central Fairway

Abstract

In recent years, the frequent disruptions of international straits, canals, and ports have drawn serious attention to the significant risks they pose to global trade and economy. A navigational disruption of the Tokyo Bay Central Fairway, a critical access route to all ports in the Tokyo Bay, could have a profound impact on the economy and society in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This study developed risk scenarios for navigational disruption of the Tokyo Bay Central Fairway by analyzing various disaster events and the transmission mechanism of such disasters. As a result, the possibility of navigation disruption due to ship accidents, cyber-attacks, and volcanic eruptions cannot be ruled out. In the worst case, navigation may be suspended for about a month and restricted for a year or more.