Abstract
This paper discusses the uncertainty of the long-term probability of the Kanto M8 earthquake along the Sagami trough, central Japan, which has been reported by Earthquake Research Committee, the Headquarter for Earthquake Research Promotion. First, we propose a new method to use of a historical Kanto earthquake sequence in estimating the probability based on simulated earthquake sequences generated with the Brownian Passage Time distribution to match geological and geographical evidence. Next, we examine earthquake sequences generated with the Poisson distribution. Results suggest that the epistemic uncertainty of the Meio Kanto earthquake leads to an uncertainty of 0.7% to 5.3% for 30 yr probability, where the Poisson distribution becomes more likely than the BPT distribution for the 1495 Meio earthquake being one of Kanto M8 earthquakes.
