2025 Volume 25 Issue 11 Pages 11_20-11_39
In this paper, we measure the effects of "fixing machinery and equipment" and "reinforcing buildings against earthquakes" on the production capacity of firms immediately after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the 2022 Fukushima offshore earthquake occurred. To measure the effect of countermeasures, we compiled a dataset for both groups by adjusting covariates for the treated group and the untreated group by matching using balancing scores and Mahalanobis distance. The difference in the occurrence probability of the production capacity state of these groups, obtained from the functional fragility curves, was used as the effect of the measures. The results showed that "fixing machinery and equipment" was highly effective in the "manufacturing" and "services (in-store or in-office)" sectors, reducing the occurrence probability of loss of production capacity state by approximately 4.9 –12.9 % for an earthquake equivalent to JMA intensity 6 or higher. In the case of "building seismic reinforcement," the effect of the countermeasures tended to increase as the seismic ground motion increased. The results of this study are expected to be applied to economic damage estimation, seismic risk management, and risk finance, reflecting the effects of countermeasures.
