Global Food Supply under Food Inflation and the Potential of Japanese Agriculture

Abstract

    This paper analyzes how Japan’s food environment is changing amid recent global food inflation, focusing on distribution volumes and price trends of highly import-dependent items. The analysis reveals that while prices have soared for most items, import volumes have decreased significantly for commodities such as livestock products, fruits, and luxury goods. Examining product quality through three case studies (beef, fresh oranges, and orange juice), the paper identifies phenomena absent in the conventional “era when we could buy anything,” including reduced product variety, seasonal supply shortages, and the use of lower-quality raw materials. For consumers, price increases themselves constitute a serious situation, but continued access only to “high-priced yet low-quality” products represents a regression from a “quality of human life” in terms of food. The rice shortage and soaring prices since last year have further accelerated food inflation, revealing that consumer demand for branded rice remains strong and that simply ensuring the smooth distribution of imported and low-priced products is insufficient. In this context, securing food supply and revitalizing agriculture are urgent necessities. For grains, increasing domestic rice production and stockpiling imported goods are critical, while for commodity crops, diversifying import sources are essential. Although there are limitations, reducing dependence on imported goods is also important. The current narrowing of price differences between domestic and imported goods should be seized as an opportunity to reform the production structure toward a low-cost model through improvements in agricultural infrastructure. If realized, this would increase opportunities to supply quality-assured food at reasonable prices, thereby helping to maintain a “quality of human life” in terms of food.