Political Context of“Contingent Voters”

Short Term Choice and Secession from the Election

Abstract

The term “Contingent voters” that I defined at the time of the snap general election that Koizumi called for “Postal Service Reform” (Koizummi-Yusei-Kaisan) in 2005 seems to be generalized widely as political mind for Japanese. The tendency of “contingent voters” is significant especially in the range of middleaged and elderly voters. In relation to voting behaviors, their choices are made only at the time and complete the process during the coming political election period, so that the election is tend to be “consumed” as an event in a short period. The term so-called “independent voter” or “swing voter” has been used symbolically to express the characteristics for political minds and voting behaviors of young people. However, it has to be said now that the term should be used better to express characteristics of middle age to elderly. Their tendency of being “contingent voters” is inextricably associated with apathy in the elections. The general election in 2012 implies that secession from local political elections has been spread to the national political election. It is to say that a decrease of voting percentage in the general election in 2012 was caused by the local society's change by a trend of non-relation among people, in addition to lost reality of one vote, which is described as a distrust of politics and political parties, the local society's change by a trend of non-relation among people. In this report, I introduce some data that I used to support my interpretations above. I would like to appreciate in advance if you make remarks or comments on this report.