Prediction of Diffusion Speed of EV by Characteristics Analysis of Key Devices

抄録

Predicting how the electric vehicle (EV) market will develop is important not only to countries, such as Japan, that have been leading the car market but also for developing countries. Thus, in order to predict the diffusion of electric vehicles, this study quantitatively analyzes the diffusion speed and price transition of existing cars and clarifies the optimum prediction method for cars' diffusion rates. A prior study examined the diffusion speed and price transition of new products after the commencement of sales using consumer electronics products and cars. It demonstrated the key roles played by engineering development and a key device's production and sales for each product. This study applies that result to other new products and embodies the predictive method as a general formula. It also increases predictive accuracy by extending the subjects of investigation the home electric appliances. The results show that the development speed of the key devices and the diffusion speed of the products are strongly correlated; this fact is expressed as an empirical equation. Furthermore, the general formula for predicting the transition of diffusion rates and prices was produced through an analysis of the empirical equation. By predicting the diffusion speed of an electric vehicle through the empirical equation and its general formula, the study shows that an EV similar to a compact car will have a 20 % household penetration rate in about 15 years after sales commence and that EVs smaller than a mini car will achieve 20 % in 8.7 years.