5km力学的ダウンスケーリングを活用した気候変動による高知平野での高潮洪水複合災害リスクの影響評価

抄録

With climate change, disasters will change not only in scale, but also in phenomena such as complex disasters. The risk of simultaneous flooding and storm surge is assessed for Urado Bay in the Kochi Plain using 5km grid dynamical downscaling climate change projection datset. Large-scale flooding occurs when typhoons passing west of Kochi City or outside the region send water vapor into the mountains, while storm surges occur when typhoons pass directly through the area. Currently, it is empirically believed that large-scale floods and storm surges do not occur simultaneously. In the future with a 4-degree temperature increase, there will be risk of complex disaster events. This may be due to the increased strength of the typhoon, which will affect the city even when it is passing through the west side of Shikoku island.