2025 Volume 41 Issue 1 Pages 24-35
Abstract: The promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce dependency on fossil energy sources and lead to a low-carbon transition in the transport sector. However, the demand for critical metal materials during the manufacturing process of EVs is substantial, and the sustainable supply of resources, as well as the environmental impacts caused by the mining of critical materials for batteries, are becoming increasingly critical. Therefore, this study estimated the future size of EVs in China using improved forecasting models and actual market data. A material flow-based approach was used to analyze the demand for critical metals in the technological upgrading of power batteries, and we calculated the feasible recycled content standards (RCS) for China’s decommissioned battery industry. The results show that, through a closed-loop recycling approach, 46.48 – 91.11% of the critical metal demand in 2060 can be met by decommissioning supply and avoiding 52.73 – 115.22 Mt of CO2 emissions. However, the circular economy (CE) strategy alone cannot eliminate the risk of critical material supply; therefore, it is necessary to promptly enhance the battery-industry management strategy, improve resource utilization efficiency, and build a green industrial chain for batteries. The results of this study provide scientific references for EV battery industry policy, recycling systems, and technology upgrading, as well as a theoretical basis for the EV industry to achieve sustainable development.
1. Introduction
According to the World Meteorological Organization, greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of the frequent extreme weather events occurring around the world1). To combat climate change and achieve low-carbon development, vehicle electrification has become essential. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shown that the EV market is growing exponentially, and sales will exceed 10 million units by 2022. EVs will account for 14% of all new cars sold in 20222). As China moves towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, EVs will soon become more popular.
Hu et al. (2020) reported that EV batteries are critical components of EVs, but there are supply risks for battery components owing to geopolitical factors and concerns regarding the availability of future raw material supplies3). Meanwhile, discarded batteries are potentially harmful to the environment and health. Winslow et al. (2018) indicated that lithium can damage the central nervous system, free cobalt may cause cancer. Metals such as copper, iron and nickel can cause DNA damage4). To enhance the resilience and sustainability of the automotive supply chain and reduce environmental pollution, Baars et al. (2021) clarified the transition to CE strategy has become critical for the sustainable development of the EV industry5). Abdelbaky et al. (2021) reported that Automakers have also recognized the advantages of CE and have begun to effectively incorporate them into corporate strategies6).
Bhari et al. (2021) have used material flow analysis (MFA) to predict the future demand for battery materials in EU, the United States, China, Japan, and other regions7),8). Many studies have shown that batteries have the potential for secondary use in energy storage, photovoltaics, and low-speed vehicles. Colarullo and Thakur (2022) indicated that reuse can alleviate the contradiction between the scarcity of battery materials and the increased consumption of batteries, and solve the environmental problems caused by discarded batteries9). However, regarding the recycling process, most studies not consider the mitigating effect of recycling on metal supply pressure10). Some studies have not taken into account the technological advancements in battery materials; it is believed that mainstream positive electrode materials such as lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide batteries (NMC), lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) and other positive electrode materials will continue maintaining their current market share11). The EU New Battery Regulation (NBR) has gained significant importance amidst global efforts to reduce carbon emissions12). As an important market for EVs, the EU requires that certain materials in batteries must come from recycled sources, thereby promoting the demand for recycled materials. To maintain and enhance competitiveness in export markets, Chinese automakers must update technology and production requirements to follow the EU’s RCS requirement. With advantages such as electrification, intelligence, and low fuel consumption, the popularity of China-made cars in overseas markets will be further enhanced. There is no academic literature that calculates and analyses the application in China based on the EU’s RCS, or examines the analysis of its avoiding environmental impacts on EV batteries. To fill the discussed research gaps, this study’s main contributions can be summarized as follows:
1. This study explored the challenges facing China’s EV battery recycling industry in terms of critical metal supply and demand. As an important pathway to achieve carbon neutrality, the study projected the future market size of China’s EVs and proposed a method to quantify the production demand and recycling potential of critical materials in different battery technology scenarios, based on modeling analysis in realistic scenarios. This study provided a valuable reference for the sustainable development of China’s automotive industry and battery waste management. In addition, this study estimated the supply potential of end-of-life (EOL) batteries in energy storage systems (ESS), providing theoretical support for the further development of the new energy storage market. In the context of the increasing instability of global supply chains, we introduced a novel approach based on CE strategies, providing new insights for balancing the supply and demand of critical materials and guiding the formulation of more resilient policies. These insights can form the foundation for developing long-term strategies that secure critical material supply chains while promoting sustainable development.
2. The EU is an important export market for China’s EVs, with China-made EVs accounting for 20% of the EU’s new car market. Consequently, EU battery legislation would have a significant impact on China’s current export standards and recycling policies. This study addressed a gap in this area of research by looking at the mandatory requirements for recycled materials outlined in Article 8 of the legislation, suggesting achievable RCS for China,
Figure 1. The scope of this study
and exploring the potential for circularity of critical materials. This analysis not only enabled China to better address future material supply challenges but also contributed to reducing the stability risks associated with exporting new energy vehicle products amid escalating trade conflicts.3. This study proposed a quantitative method for assessing the carbon reduction and environmental benefits of recycling critical materials. The transportation sector is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas emissions, and as the sector moves towards electrification, this study provided timely insights for policy makers and industry stakeholders, helping to address the conflict between the rapid development of the EV industry and resource supply. In addition, this study contributed to a comprehensive understanding of the scale of battery waste generation in China, improved the efficiency of critical resource use, and provided important references for the sustainable management of EOL batteries.
2. Methodology and Data
In this study, we utilized a logistics model to predict EV sales in China. By incorporating the lifetime Weibull distribution of batteries, we analyzed the number of retired power batteries in China using MFA, and estimated the supply potential of critical elements in retired batteries. The standards for the recycled content of materials for EVs in China were verified based on the sustainable development goals for battery materials, proposed by the EU.
2-1 Scope of Study
Figure 1 shows the scope of this study, focused on pure electric passenger vehicles in China and forecasted EV sales data for 2015 to 2060. Regarding the batteries used in EVs, the main focus on LFP, ternary lithium battery (TLB), such as NMC532, NMC622, NMC811, NCA, lithium-ion manganese oxide battery (LMO), lithium–sulfur battery (Li-S), and Na-ion batteries (SIB). EV sales data from the IEA were utilized as a database, excluding import and export quantities2).
2-2 Electric-vehicle Sales Model
Based on historical data provided by the IEA on EV sales in China, the annual sales of pure EVs were modeled using an enhanced logistic curve aligned with the vehicle sales targets set by the technology roadmap13). The core principle of logistic model is that as the market size approaches its saturation point, the growth rate gradually declines. Unlike the exponential growth model, the logistic model effectively captures the slowdown in growth as market saturation nears, which aligns well with the expected trajectory of EV adoption. In addition, compared to the Bass diffusion model, the logistic model requires fewer parameters, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the forecasting process. To account for potential market fluctuations, in particular the expected slowdown following the achievement of the technology roadmap targets, a segmented regression analysis was applied to the EV sales data. The mathematical representation of the logistic curve is as follows:
r: The diffusion rate, r > 0, which is influenced by factors such as technological progress, government incentives, and consumer acceptance.
N(t): The EV sales at time t (units).
t0: The initial time (year). In this study, we set the year as 2015.
MK: The market’s maximum potential (units), is determined based on the development goals outlined in the roadmap and expert recommendations14),15). Since peak vehicle sales are a projected figure, there is considerable uncertainty. To account for this uncertainty, we performed a validation using Python-based modeling, which demonstrated that setting MK at 40 million resulted in a good model fit with an R-squared value of 0.9681.
2-3 Inventory-driven Modelling
The inventory-driven MFA-based method provides a reliable approach to estimating battery waste in the EOL phase and is used to dynamically simulate the scale of EOL batteries16),17). The total number of EV batteries entering the EOL phase in year t, B (t) can be derived using Equation (2).
where
i: The battery type.
k: The lifetime of the EV battery (year).
Ni (t-k): The EV sales of battery type i enter the use stage in a year (t-k) (units).
Pi (t, k): The percentage of EVs sold in year k which batteries reach the EOL stage in year t, is derived from the Weibull distribution (%).
B (t): The total number of EV batteries entering the EOL phase in year t (units).
The weight of the metal material j contained in the batteries within year t is calculated using Equation (3), and the weight of the material contained in the EV batteries entering the EOL phase in year t, W (t), is calculated using Equation (4).
Ci(t): The capacity of the battery i in year t (kWh).
ηi,j: The composition of material j contained in the battery type i (kg·kWh-1).
g: The collection rate of the battery (%).
Mj(t): The weight of the metal material j contained in the batteries in year t (kg).
Wj(t): The weight of the metal material j contained in the EV batteries entering the EOL phase in year t (kg).
In the context of lithium-ion batteries, the collection rate g is the percentage of EOL batteries that are collected and subsequently recycled. Currently, statistics on the actual collection rate of lithium-ion batteries in China are lacking. Therefore, this study adopts the collection rate proposed by the EU NBR12). Considering that the EU is an important global market for EVs, with Chinese EVs currently accounting for 20% of new car sales in the region, its policies will impact the import and export volumes of electric cars in China. Non-compliance with these policies could lead to restricted market access or additional regulatory hurdles. The actual supply of recyclable materials (Zj) is estimated using Equation (5).
Ej: The recycling efficiency of material j (%).
Zj: The actual supply of recyclable material j (kg).
Regarding the setting of material recycling efficiency (Ej), this study designs three cases for critical material recycling efficiencies based on the NBR and the requirements of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), as illustrated in Table 112)13).
Table 1. Metal recycling efficiency case
2-4 Battery-life Modelling
Qiao et al. (2021) reported that the lifetime of lithium-ion batteries is affected by numerous factors, including battery capacity, materials, technology, and usage scenarios18). In this study, the lifetime distribution of a vehicle was estimated based on the Weibull distribution function, which is commonly used to predict product lifetimes and reliability designs. Most studies have shown that the Weibull distribution provides a good approximation of the actual lifetime distribution of a vehicle16). In this study, a two-parameter Weibull distribution (Figure 2) is used, as shown in Equation (6).
α: The shape parameter (set as 3.5 19)).
β: The scale parameter.
Figure 2. Life distribution of batteries
The scale parameter β indicates the product life. Considering that the power battery industry is constantly developing and the national standards and technological routes of China’s power batteries are continually being updated under the advancement of the carbon-neutral goal, this study used the dynamic life year to estimate the probability of battery EOL. In 2016, the Chinese government stipulated that the warranty of power batteries for EVs should be over eight years. In 2018, MIIT’s Battery Technology Development Roadmap projected that battery life would be extended to 10 years by 2020, 12 years by 2025, and 15 years by 2030. These projections cover 2020–2025, 2025–2030, and 2030–2060, respectively13).
2-5 Battery Capacity
Battery capacity, which indicates the amount of energy that can be extracted from a battery, is related to energy density and weight. Jiang et al. (2021) demonstrated a linear relationship between battery capacity and EV range19). Based on the range targets proposed by the China Association of Automotive Engineering, starting from 300 km in 2020 and increasing by 100 km every five years, future battery capacities were estimated. The estimated capacities are 57 kWh in 2020, 87 kWh, 117 kWh, 157 kWh, and 207 kWh in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060, respectively.
2-6 Recycled-content Standards
The material flow model analyzed the supply of critical metals for retired batteries, and scenario analysis was used to estimate battery cathode chemistry market share. These assumptions form the basis for the analysis of the RCS outlined in the EU NBR. As the NBR is the first legislation requiring products to manage their carbon footprint, including mandatory recycling requirements and strict sustainability standards, the EU has become a significant market for Chinese EVs. EVs, as the key targets of the new EU regulatory standards, play an important role in China’s industrial transformation. We evaluate feasible standards for China based on the recycling content requirements of the EU NBR. This assessment not only ensures that China-made EVs can access the EU market but also addresses the challenge posed by the increasing demand for EV manufacturing in China and the high dependence on overseas sources for critical materials. In the RCS calculation, the supply of recycled materials and the demand for manufacturing materials are determined first, followed by the calculation of the achievable recycled content of EOL batteries.
l: The manufacturing losses in battery production process (%).
Dj: The demand for manufacturing material j (kg).
RCSj: The recycled content standard of material j (%).
To accurately calculate the required materials, the manufacturing losses l must be considered. Equation (7) references the Argonne National Laboratory BatPac model, which has an estimated yield of 92.2% for all cathode materials, used to calculate the total materials required for battery manufacturing16). In Equation (8), supply is divided by demand, and the result is calculated as the percentage of recycled material content, which is based on the assumption that retired battery recycling in China operates as a closed-loop system.
2-7 Battery Technology Modelling and Scenario Setting
The direction of battery technology development is uncertain because of improved battery density and the advancement of electrode materials. Currently, the main battery types in the Chinese market are lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and NMC series batteries. NMC batteries have a higher energy density and can store more energy in the same volume or weight, thus extending the range of EVs. LFPs exhibit excellent electrochemical performance owing to their olivine-type structure, have high thermal and chemical stability, and are not prone to thermal runaway or combustion at high temperatures and under overcharging conditions. Thermal runaway or combustion is less likely to occur under high-temperature and overcharging conditions. All countries recognize the critical role of lithium batteries in future energy transitions and strive to promote sustainable development of the lithium battery industry through policy support, technological innovation and international cooperation2). Countries such as Japan and China have also proposed development routes for Li-S, Li–air, and solid-Li batteries20).
Table 2. Descriptions of five different technologies dominate market scenarios
Therefore, this study used trends in five battery technologies to simulate the manufacturing requirements of critical materials (Table 2). In the Baseline Scenario, based on the current battery technology trends in the Chinese EV market, LFP and NMC811 batteries are widely used and continue to dominate the market21). In the LFP-dominant Scenario, Cobalt and nickel-free LFP batteries will gradually infiltrate the market and dominate 90% battery market. In the NMC811-dominant Scenario, EVs develop toward the high range, high-nickel, and low-cobalt NMC811 will gradually dominate 90% battery market. In the Li-S-dominant Scenario, apart from the mainstream NMC and LFP batteries, the development of solid lithium (solid-Li) and lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries is also regarded as a future trend. Therefore, this scenario assumes that Li-S batteries will be commercially available on a large scale after 2030, with a market share of approximately 50%. In the SIB-dominant Scenario, SIB has been used in low-speed EVs and energy storage systems because of their rich reserves of consumable elements, low cost, good stability, and other characteristics. Therefore, this scenario assumes that sodium-ion batteries will begin to be commercialized on a large scale after 2030, with a market share of approximately 50%. Five scenarios were used to explain the impact of battery cathode materials on the demand for critical metals in this study, the baseline scenario serving as the foundation for the other scenarios.
3. Results and Discussions
The demand for critical materials varies with battery technology drivers. This study demonstrated the variations in the supply and demand of critical metals for four cathode materials and verified the metal supply potential under feasible recycling conditions. The reuse potential of decommissioned batteries was then analyzed to explore the critical material supply and demand issues that may be faced regarding environmental impact and supply risk.
3-1 Scale of Electric-vehicle Development and Retirement
Figure 3a illustrates the trends of EV sales and ownership from 2015 to 2060 in China. Under the process of achieving a carbon neutrality target, China’s EV ownership will grow from 210 thousand units in 2015 to 77.65 million units in 2030, and will remain at approximately 470 million units in 2060, a trend that is in line with the ownership target proposed in the technology roadmap published by the MIIT of China13).
Figure 3. (a) Sales and Ownership of EVs in China; (b) Quantity and Capacity of Discarded EV Batteries in China.
As the EV market expands, the number of EOL vehicles will increase dramatically, reaching 2.1 million in 2030, which is six times the number in 2023. IEA projects that China’s EV electricity demand will reach 230 TWh by 2030 and 400 TWh by 203522). This study estimates that if battery capacity is integrated into an energy storage system under ideal conditions, without considering recycling losses, EOL batteries will provide 0.3% of storage capacity in 2030, rising to 0.7% in 2035. By 2060, the remaining capacity of retired batteries will account for 8% of the EV battery capacity, amounting to 7.74 TWh.
Figure 3b illustrates the trends of discarded batteries and capacities. Retired batteries typically retain 70 – 80% of their original capacity, suggesting that they could make a significant contribution to ESS for wind and solar power through a laddering approach. The Net Zero Emissions scenario proposed at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference underscores the critical need to increase global energy storage capacity, primarily through battery storage, to 1.2TW by 2030, which is crucial to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius22). China Energy Storage Industry and Technology Alliance white paper demonstrated that China’s newly installed energy storage capacity will reach 221.2GW by 203023). The study estimated that retired batteries could potentially provide a total capacity of 670GWh in 2030, which would theoretically satisfy the market demand for developing new energy storage in the solar and wind energy markets.
3-2 Trends in Supply and Demand of Critical Metals
As the sales of EVs continue to grow, the number of metals required to manufacture batteries will also increase. Furthermore, the manufacturing demand for metals is estimated from vehicle sales, the share of cathode materials, and the strength of metal materials. The cumulative metal demands in the baseline scenario for the period 2015 – 2060 for Li, Ni, Co, and Mn were 16.87 Mt, 46.95 Mt, 14.21 Mt, and 13.31 Mt, respectively. Ni, Co, and Mn reached their maximum demand in 2040 – 2046 (Ni, 1.64Mt; Co, 540 kt; and Mn, 510 kt). By 2060, the demand for Li-Ni-Co and Mn will be 30.12, 18.12, 7.83, and 7.81 times higher than that in 2023, respectively.
Figure 4. Comparisons of annual critical metal supply under different scenarios. (a) Baseline scenario. (b) LFP-dominant Scenario. (c) NMC811-dominant Scenario. (d) Li-S/SIB-dominant Scenario.
Considering the current battery technology market, demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese metals is projected to remain high through 2060. Under the NMC811 scenario, lithium metal demand is expected to reach 687kt, with nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands at 3.98Mt, 560kt, and 530kt, respectively. This trend is closely linked to the material characteristics of NMC batteries. In scenarios dominated by emerging technologies like Li-S and SIB, lithium metal demand for manufacturing drops to 56% of the NMC811 scenario, and nickel demand to 36%. However, in these scenarios, the demand for cobalt and manganese slightly exceeds that of the NMC811 scenario, highlighting the ongoing demand for these metals despite advancements in new battery technologies. In contrast, under a dominated by LFP technology scenario, projected manufacturing demands for cobalt and manganese in 2060 will be only 92kt and 86kt, respectively.
Figure 4 illustrates the scale of metal elements available for extraction from retired batteries, referring to the collection rate specified by the NBR. The variations in results primarily stem from the diverse market trends of battery technologies. In addition, based on the strength characteristics of the cathode materials, the requirements for critical metals in the Li-S and SIB scenario schemes are consistent.
3-3 Recovery Potential and Recycled-content Standards for Critical Metals
As the amount of EOL batteries available for recycling increases, the extraction of secondary critical metals from EOL batteries can mitigate future supply risks. This study estimated the recycling potential of battery cathode materials under theoretical cases and projected future recycling rates for critical metal elements. Three elemental recycling efficiency cases were developed to forecast RCS percentages for critical elements (Table 3). By 2030, the achievable RCS in China is projected to range from 3.38 – 5.74% for lithium, 5.74 – 6.62% for nickel, 5.4 – 6.62% for cobalt, and 5.4 – 6.62% for manganese. By 2060, the values for lithium metal, nickel, cobalt, and manganese will be 46.48 – 79.02%, 79.02 – 91.11%, 74.38 – 91.11%, and 74.38 – 91.11%, respectively.
Table 3. The results of recycled content standards analysis in the baseline scenario, unit: %.
The collection rate, in addition to the market share of battery cathode materials, plays a crucial role in determining the potential secondary supply of critical metals. In the baseline scenario, the amount of material available for recycling varied significantly owing to the efficiency of elemental recycling. By 2030, the disparity in available recycling due to differing efficiencies will be at 4.94 kt for lithium, 6.28 kt for nickel, 3.40 kt for cobalt, and 3.19 kt for manganese. By 2060, this gap will continue to widen, resulting in values of 244.38 kt for lithium, 200.11 kt for nickel, 49.72 kt for cobalt, and 46.49 kt for manganese. Improving recycling efficiencies will enhance the supply capacity of critical metals, thereby easing pressure on essential resource supply.
Even with the desired progress in the recycling efficiency case, the recycled content of certain critical metals still falls short of EU standards. This affects environmental sustainability and resource management, and potentially reduces the international competitiveness of Chinese automotive companies.
3-4 Recycling Avoidance Effect
Recycling essential metals from spent batteries can reduce reliance on resources such as lithium and cobalt, thereby reducing the environmental impacts associated with mining activities. This study examined various recycling efficiency
scenarios using Ecoinvent 3.7 data from a CE perspective and assessed the avoid environmental effects of these practices24),25),26). Categories including climate change, freshwater ecotoxicity (FETP), freshwater eutrophication (FEP), human toxicity (HTP), marine ecotoxicity (METP), particulate matter formation (PMFP), photochemical ozone formation (POFP), and terrestrial acidification (TAP).
By 2060, recycling could prevent 52.73 to 115.22 Mt of CO2. Because of the high toxicity of copper ions to aquatic organisms, scenarios dominated by LFP (0.946 kg copper per unit of cathode material) contributed significantly to water-related environmental impacts. In 2060, the avoided-effect value for LFP cathode materials production was estimated with FETP of 109 – 126Mt of 1.4-DB equivalent. For FEP, this value reaches 224 – 259 kt P equivalent. For HTP, it is 440 – 510 Mt 1.4-DB equivalent. For METP, it reaches 95.2 – 109 Mt 1.4-DB equivalent. The contribution of nickel to the PMFP, POFP, and TAP impact categories was more significant; therefore, the environmental impacts avoided by 2060 in the NMC811-dominated market scenario would be as follows: PMFP (1.4 – 1.6 Mt PM10 equivalent), POFP (1.1 – 1.3Mt NMVOC), and TAP (5.5 – 6.4 Mt SO2 equivalent).
According to the analysis, LFP, Li-S, and SIB dominated the market trend, resulting in a relatively low overall environmental impact. This finding strongly supports the development of emerging battery technologies. Meanwhile, solid-state batteries were widely used in ESS due to their cost advantages. China launched the first 10 megawatt-hour sodium-ion energy storage station in May 2024.
4. Conclusions and Policy Implications
This study used a stock-driven model to simulate the sales and potential EOL of EVs in China from 2015 to 2060. The results demonstrated the significant energy storage and resource potential provided by retired batteries. The basic conclusions are as follows:
(1) Driven by carbon neutrality targets, China’s EV ownership is expected to increase to 470 million by 2060. The rapid growth in EV sales was expected to increase demand for critical materials in manufacturing by 8-30 times in 2023. This surge in demand will strain the supply chain for necessary materials, potentially threatening the sustainable development of the EV industry.
(2) CE strategies that mitigate metal supply constraints and reduce the environmental impact of critical metal production will be instrumental in achieving carbon neutrality in China’s transportation sector. By 2060, EVs were projected to require approximately 0.66 Mt for lithium, 1.47 Mt for nickel, 0.26 Mt for cobalt, and 0.24 Mt for manganese. By recycling critical metal materials, 46.48 – 79.02% of lithium and 74.38 – 91.11% of nickel, cobalt, and manganese can be utilized for secondary use.
(3) According to estimates of elemental recycling efficiency cases, in the baseline scenario, projected RCS ratios by 2035 are expected to range from 6.02 – 10.23% for lithium, 10.23 – 11.80% for nickel, and 9.63 – 11.80% for cobalt. Under the ideal recycling efficiency case, there still exists a substantial disparity between the RCS content of critical metals and the EU’s 2035 recycling targets, and Chinese automotive companies need to accelerate their adaptation to these stringent standards.
(4) The avoided effects of some vital metals in battery cathode materials were estimated, and the results show that 52.73 – 115.22 Mt of CO2 emissions can be avoided by 2060, and environmental impacts can be substantially reduced.
Ensuring a sustainable supply of critical metals is crucial for future large-scale production of electric vehicles in the context of climate change and resource scarcity. China needs to strengthen its policies and management, especially in response to the EU’s NBR and its requirements for battery recycling. This includes standardizing the EV terminal lifecycle recycling market, optimizing reverse logistics networks through enhanced information sharing, and establishing an efficient power battery recycling management system that leverages big data and the Internet of Things. Meanwhile, the Chinese automotive industry must accelerate its green transformation to meet environmental standards and enhance international competitiveness. To achieve this goal, China should strengthen cooperation with the EU and other international partners, promote technology and management exchanges, and gradually improve China’s global market position.
This study’s limitation is that it focuses on pure electric passenger cars; hybrid and fuel-cell electric cars are not included. Although the current development trend of pure EVs is rapid, the recycling levels of critical metals may need to be reassessed as new technology scenarios emerge. Future research will utilize machine learning methods to optimize recycling processes for critical materials and quantify the discrepancy between actual recycling results and policy.
Corresponding Author
Yajie HU
Graduate School of Environment Engineering, University of Kitakyushu
1-1 Hibikino, Wakamatsu, Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka, 808-0135 Japan
E-mail: d2dac401@eng.kitakyu-u.ac.jp
Received: 16 July 2024 Accepted: 21 November 2024
©日本環境共生学会(JAHES) 2025
