Abstract: The promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce dependency on fossil energy sources and lead to a low-carbon transition in the transport sector. However, the demand for critical metal materials during the manufacturing process of EVs is substantial, and the sustainable supply of resources, as well as the environmental impacts caused by the mining of critical materials for batteries, are becoming increasingly critical. Therefore, this study estimated the future size of EVs in China using improved forecasting models and actual market data. A material flow-based approach was used to analyze the demand for critical metals in the technological upgrading of power batteries, and we calculated the feasible recycled content standards (RCS) for China’s decommissioned battery industry. The results show that, through a closed-loop recycling approach, 46.48 – 91.11% of the critical metal demand in 2060 can be met by decommissioning supply and avoiding 52.73 – 115.22 Mt of CO2 emissions. However, the circular economy (CE) strategy alone cannot eliminate the risk of critical material supply; therefore, it is necessary to promptly enhance the battery-industry management strategy, improve resource utilization efficiency, and build a green industrial chain for batteries. The results of this study provide scientific references for EV battery industry policy, recycling systems, and technology upgrading, as well as a theoretical basis for the EV industry to achieve sustainable development.
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