男子世界トップレベルのハンドボールにおける勝利に影響を及ぼすゲームパフォーマンス：決定木分析を用いた目標値の算出

抄録

The purpose of this study was to identify the target values that classify winning and losing in close games at the men’s elite level using decision tree analysis. The analysis was composed of 52 game performance based on official records of 243 closed games (score differences:1-7 goals) in 5 men’s world championships. First, correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlation between the final goal difference and game performance, and 32 game performance were found to be significant. Next, game performance showed a significant correlation, target values were identified using decision tree analysis. The results revealed the following:

1. In offense, achieving an attack success rate of 55.9% or higher results in an 89.5% probability of victory. To achieve this, increasing assists, utilizing more group tactics to attain a shot success rate of 61.0% or higher, is more important than reducing technical fouls.

2. For shots from areas, a wing shot success rate of 51.9% can be considered an achievable target value.

3. In defense, a save rate of 32.1% or higher, 13.5 or more saves, and 42.5 or fewer opponent shots can be considered achievable target values.