2022 年 11 巻 1 号 p. 24-51
This paper seeks to understand the impact of international aid on conflict, and the processes, through which international aid affected conflict in Afghanistan. To build a causal chain for the research of the effect of aid on conflict, this study recasts the theoretical assumptions of grievance in political science and greed in economics as testable hypotheses, in aid-conflict nexus. The process entails accounting for third variables, elucidating how and why aidconflict are related. This necessitates mediation and moderation analyses. To conduct this study, Global Terrorism Data (GTD), Aid Data, World Bank Gini Index, and aid-looting data, collected through an online Likert Questionnaire, were combined. For analysis, moderation and the mediating effects were statistically modelled and tested using Hayes SPSS Process Macro. According to moderation analysis, grievance had an insignificant moderating effect on the aid-conflict nexus (b=-.0003, 95% C.I. [-.0007, -.0001]. t=-1.7257, p=.0947). A closer examination revealed that the regression line became steeper as economic grievance rose, indicating a modest conflict mitigating effect. According to mediation analysis aid was a strong predictor of conflict (b= .0027, β= .52, t= 3.42, p < .001). Aid ceased being a strong predictor, when aid-looting was included, indicating a full-mediation (b= −.0001, β= −.0200, t= −.1079, p > .05). Instead, aid-looting emerged as a strong predictor of conflict (b=2.8292, β= .7305, t= 3.9, p < .05).
