Food insecurity is expecting in upcoming decades in the Zarafshan River Basin of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Uzbekistan is recognized as one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to the impact of long-term climate change process. The potential threats in the food insecurity is related to the period 2003-2100 are based on ensemble projections of global climate models provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and updated for Zarafshan River Basins areas (Samarkand, Bukhara, partly Navoi). The extended period 1901-2100 presents to depict global trends in observed climate and projected climate change scenarios for Zarafshan River Basins in the side of Uzbekistan. The main results comprise an estimation of the shifts of climate zones within the 21st century by considering different IPCC scenarios. In upcoming decades, the water shortages could severely limit irrigation water availability in almost all river basins of Uzbekistan, and are taken into account in Zarafshan river basin areas will influenced a negative effects on almost all crops (cotton, wheat, vineyards), with reductions of 10-25 percent in yields through 2050. Increased temperatures can lengthen growing seasons; and as well as a higher carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration can enhance plant growth. Also, the Köppen-Geiger climate classification projected with Tyndall temperature and precipitation data for the period 2076-2100, A1FI emission scenario, multi model mean, on a regular 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid and estimated changes around the selected area. The four scenarios are designed to reflect a range of global circulation model (GCM) outcomes for agriculture that include a low-impact, medium-, and high-impact outcome in the Zerafshan River Basin.