Evolution of energy resources—Historical transition, current status and future prediction

Abstract

The endowment, resources, reserves and production capacity of oil are estimated by global oil generation, field size distribution, discovery process and decline curve analyses. The historical fluctuation of oil price is almost explained by the excess production capacity over actual consumption, which is verified by the vector autoregression analysis. These results combined with economics described by energy consumption lead to a construction of an endogenous dynamic model, which successfully replicates the historical cyclic fluctuation of production and price, and can be used to analyze the evolution of energy resources.