地質リスク評価における現状と課題

－不確実性の把握と評価精度の向上をめざして－

抄録

We revisit JOGMECʼs prospect evaluation strategy based on post-well audits for exploration wells from 2007 to 2015. Post-drill statistical results demonstrated relatively good match with predrill geological chance of success and reserves estimation. However, predrill predictions might not sufficiently differentiate high- and low-risk prospects, and large and small reserves. We identified key technical problems to further improve geological risk evaluation. The key elements include appropriate evaluations of DHI （Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator）, petroleum system, and rock volumes.

Since our targets will be geologically more difficult with maturity of oil and gas exploration, it is important to pursue key technologies and to improve risk/volume evaluation for future exploration performance.