資源開発事業評価におけるリスクベースドアプローチと経済性評価

抄録

It is generally said that E&P business have high uncertainty. Although geological risk and reserves risk are major risk for the business, the other risk factors such as resource price, governmental approvals, operatorʼs financial condition has been more noticeably attributed to the actual commercial non-success. Under the circumstances, JOGMEC has made a trial effort to work on project evaluation with a risk-based approach. Risk factors for E&P business are as follows. 1） Underground Resource Risk （Discovery Risk, Reserves Risk, Productivity Risk） 2） Operation risk （Cost Increasing Risk, Schedule Delay Risk, Safety and Health / Environment （HSE） Risk） 3） Management Risk （Team/Human resource risk, Operatorʼs Financial Risk, Strategic Risk） 4） Marketing Risk 5） Financial Risk （Financing Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Liquidity Risk） 6） Country Risk （Macro-Risk （Politics and Economics）, Legal Taxation Risk, Currency Exchange Risk, Nationalism Over Natural Resource, Changes in legal and contract term） 7） External Factor Risk （Price, etc.）On the project evaluating stage, it is necessary to grasp the above risks as precisely as possible, then confirm the control measures for each risk factor, and evaluate whether the control measures would make the risk to mitigate to a reasonable level. JOGMEC has been working on quantification of geological risk / reserves risk and on economic evaluation taking stochastic method into account since the agency established. Besides, in order to respond to the need for strengthening governance in the recent financial business sector in JOGMEC, the above mentioned risk-based approach has conducted on a trial basis.